Caymans Post

A world within. A state apart.
Thursday, Mar 28, 2024

Analysis: Nicaragua's looming election poses two challenges to the rest of the region

Analysis: Nicaragua's looming election poses two challenges to the rest of the region

Nicaragua's upcoming election on November 7 is expected to hold no surprises, after strongman president Daniel Ortega spent most of the year tightening his grip on the country.

With seven opposition candidates behind bars and thousands of critics abroad to escape the oppressive control of Ortega's police, the septuagenarian leader and his colorful wife, Rosario Murillo, look undisputedly in control of the vote outcome. The biggest question now isn't who will win -- but how the rest of the region will react once Ortega declares victory.

Democracy has been eroding across Latin America: From north to south, the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated a trend of regional caudillos seizing the political stage and working to weaken democratic checks and balances.

In February 2020, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele ordered the military to raid parliament to "spur" lawmakers to authorize a loan to his government. In August this year, his example was followed by Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who organized a military parade in Brasilia just as Congress was debating a Bolsonaro-backed reform of the voting system (the reform did not pass).

According to a regional survey of over 20,000 people by polling firm Latinobarometro, less than 50% of Latin Americans polled in 2020 say democracy is preferable to any other form of government and more than one in ten openly advocate for an authoritarian regime.

Anti-government protesters gather on the grounds of San Agustin church after their march was blocked by police in Managua, Nicaragua, in 2019.


Support for authoritarianism is strongest in younger generations, showed the poll, with 49% of people aged 16-25 saying they either support an authoritarian regime or are indifferent to the form of government.

And indifference to democratic government seems particularly acute in Central America, with the majority of poll respondents in the impoverished Northern Triangle nations Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador saying they would be in favor of a non-democratic government "if it resolves the country's problems."

Two challenges for the region


In June, former Costa Rican president Laura Chinchilla described a spate of arrests by the Ortega administration as "the night of the long knives in the tropics," while US State Department spokesman Ned Price has said repressive conditions in Nicaragua are simply "not consistent with credible elections."

But the vote is going ahead anyway.

And now having intimidated or locked up all viable political opponents, Ortega's expected reelection in Nicaragua presents two challenges to the rest of the region: Will other leaders speak out against this subversion of democratic processes? And how will the many multilateral systems designed to defend democracy in Latin America -- the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR), the Organization of American States, and smaller groups like the Pacific Alliance or the Andean Community -- reckon with their failure to prevent Nicaragua's slide toward a dictatorship?

While many countries have condemned the arrest of opposition figures in Nicaragua -- and the US has even imposed sanctions -- they may be hesitant to push much further after being burned by their experience with Venezuela in recent years.

After a contested election in 2019, dozens of foreign governments chose not to acknowledge strongman Nicolas Maduro as Venezuela's legitimate leader, favoring instead opposition leader Juan Guaido. But the strategy backfired -- two years later, Maduro retains control of the country and has effectively won his battle against international pressure.

"I think the Venezuelan crisis caused a certain caution among the international community over what to do in Nicaragua," says Tiziano Breda, a Central American analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Members of Nicaragua's army prepare election ballots for their distribution throughout the country.


"After investing so much on Guaidó, and creating this impasse in Venezuela that has not resolved the crisis there, there is less clarity of what an alternative strategy for Nicaragua could be: opposing Ortega, sure, but what is the alternative?" Breda told CNN.

One likely reason Venezuela's political crisis triggered so much regional reaction is because it went hand-in-hand with a migration crisis: 4.6 million Venezuelans have so far fled the country, according to UNHCR. In contrast, political oppression in Nicaragua has not triggered a similar mass exodus that would force its neighbors to act -- at least not yet.

Newsletter

Related Articles

Caymans Post
0:00
0:00
Close
Paper straws found to contain long-lasting and potentially toxic chemicals - study
FTX's Bankman-Fried headed for jail after judge revokes bail
Blackrock gets half a trillion dollar deal to rebuild Ukraine
Israel: Unprecedented Civil Disobedience Looms as IDF Reservists Protest Judiciary Reform
America's First New Nuclear Reactor in Nearly Seven Years Begins Operations
Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system
Today Hunter Biden’s best friend and business associate, Devon Archer, testified that Joe Biden met in Georgetown with Russian Moscow Mayor's Wife Yelena Baturina who later paid Hunter Biden $3.5 million in so called “consulting fees”
Singapore Carries Out First Execution of a Woman in Two Decades Amid Capital Punishment Debate
Google testing journalism AI. We are doing it already 2 years, and without Google biased propoganda and manipulated censorship
Unlike illegal imigrants coming by boats - US Citizens Will Need Visa To Travel To Europe in 2024
Musk announces Twitter name and logo change to X.com
The politician and the journalist lost control and started fighting on live broadcast.
The future of sports
Unveiling the Black Hole: The Mysterious Fate of EU's Aid to Ukraine
Farewell to a Music Titan: Tony Bennett, Renowned Jazz and Pop Vocalist, Passes Away at 96
Alarming Behavior Among Florida's Sharks Raises Concerns Over Possible Cocaine Exposure
Transgender Exclusion in Miss Italy Stirs Controversy Amidst Changing Global Beauty Pageant Landscape
Joe Biden admitted, in his own words, that he delivered what he promised in exchange for the $10 million bribe he received from the Ukraine Oil Company.
TikTok Takes On Spotify And Apple, Launches Own Music Service
Global Trend: Using Anti-Fake News Laws as Censorship Tools - A Deep Dive into Tunisia's Scenario
Arresting Putin During South African Visit Would Equate to War Declaration, Asserts President Ramaphosa
Hacktivist Collective Anonymous Launches 'Project Disclosure' to Unearth Information on UFOs and ETIs
Typo sends millions of US military emails to Russian ally Mali
Server Arrested For Theft After Refusing To Pay A Table's $100 Restaurant Bill When They Dined & Dashed
The Changing Face of Europe: How Mass Migration is Reshaping the Political Landscape
China Urges EU to Clarify Strategic Partnership Amid Trade Tensions
Europe is boiling: Extreme Weather Conditions Prevail Across the Continent
The Last Pour: Anchor Brewing, America's Pioneer Craft Brewer, Closes After 127 Years
Democracy not: EU's Digital Commissioner Considers Shutting Down Social Media Platforms Amid Social Unrest
Sarah Silverman and Renowned Authors Lodge Copyright Infringement Case Against OpenAI and Meta
Italian Court's Controversial Ruling on Sexual Harassment Ignites Uproar
Why Do Tech Executives Support Kennedy Jr.?
The New York Times Announces Closure of its Sports Section in Favor of The Athletic
BBC Anchor Huw Edwards Hospitalized Amid Child Sex Abuse Allegations, Family Confirms
Florida Attorney General requests Meta CEO's testimony on company's platforms' alleged facilitation of illicit activities
The Distorted Mirror of actual approval ratings: Examining the True Threat to Democracy Beyond the Persona of Putin
40,000 child slaves in Congo are forced to work in cobalt mines so we can drive electric cars.
BBC Personalities Rebuke Accusations Amidst Scandal Involving Teen Exploitation
A Swift Disappointment: Why Is Taylor Swift Bypassing Canada on Her Global Tour?
Historic Moment: Edgars Rinkevics, EU's First Openly Gay Head of State, Takes Office as Latvia's President
Bye bye democracy, human rights, freedom: French Cops Can Now Secretly Activate Phone Cameras, Microphones And GPS To Spy On Citizens
The Poor Man With Money, Mark Zuckerberg, Unveils Twitter Replica with Heavy-Handed Censorship: A New Low in Innovation?
Unilever Plummets in a $2.5 Billion Free Fall, to begin with: A Reckoning for Misuse of Corporate Power Against National Interest
Beyond the Blame Game: The Need for Nuanced Perspectives on America's Complex Reality
Twitter Targets Meta: A Tangle of Trade Secrets and Copycat Culture
The Double-Edged Sword of AI: AI is linked to layoffs in industry that created it
US Sanctions on China's Chip Industry Backfire, Prompting Self-Inflicted Blowback
Meta Copy Twitter with New App, Threads
The New French Revolution
BlackRock Bitcoin ETF Application Refiled, Naming Coinbase as ‘Surveillance-Sharing’ Partner
×